NI vs Prediction Markets
Where do real people disagree with the markets? NI polls verified, demographically-targeted people. Prediction markets aggregate money-weighted bets. When they diverge, someone is wrong.
No divergences tracked yet.
Link NI polls to prediction markets to start tracking where people and markets disagree.
How this works
NI polls survey verified, demographically-targeted people who are paid for their honest opinions.
Prediction markets aggregate bets from traders who put money on outcomes.
When these diverge significantly, it means either the market hasn’t priced in real sentiment, or the polled population has a bias.